Over a year ago, Microsoft announced they were working on a 4K system that would be stronger than any other before it and thus been subject of major hype by the community. However, the DFC Intelligence firm projects that the Xbox One X will sell 17 million units by 2021 and 20 million units by 2022.
DFC Intelligence Analyst David Cole stated that:
“Xbox One X is an expensive system designed to appeal to a fairly narrow demographic of gamers who want high quality graphics but do not want to spend money on a high-end PC. The challenge is that is a fairly small addressable market, even as sales of 4K television sets start to soar. Both the Nintendo Switch or Sony PlayStation 4 offer a very strong value proposition that consumers seem to be flocking to.”
He’s not wrong. As of January, PlayStation 4 has sold 58 million units while the Xbox One has only sold 28 million units. The DFC said that with the added 17 million, the Xbox One family would reach 63 million units sold. The projection just barely beats Sony, but that’s now, not 2021.
Even with a powerful system, people want other consoles because of the exclusives they have to offer. The DFC also has a prediction about that as well.
The firm stated that the Xbox would get an estimate of 130 titles, 25 being exclusives, between now and 2018. If estimates are correct, Microsoft could combat Sony in the exclusives department and this would usher in new fans for the Xbox One family; however, Cole doesn’t seem to think so.
“Many of the exclusives are fairly minor indie titles that will probably not take advantage of the enhanced graphics features of the system. Furthermore, the leap from 1080 to 4k resolution is simply not as revolutionary as the previous movement from standard definition to high definition.”
The DFC’s Xbox One X predictions comes from their Worldwide Video Game Market Forecasts report which can be found here.